SaaS初创公司 如何快速估算出对手的实力 | 双语
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2016-10-24 09:48
文章摘要:作者:JASON LEMKIN 编译:张苏月 核心提示:想要了解对手公司的赚钱实力,本文告诉你一个简便的计算公式。 A friend of mine who heads business intelligence at a public web company taught me a little hack that does seem to work pretty well to figure out the revenues of any pre-public SaaS/web serv
作者:JASON LEMKIN

编译:张苏月

核心提示:想要了解对手公司的赚钱实力,本文告诉你一个简便的计算公式。

A friend of mine who heads business intelligence at a public web company taught me a little hack that does seem to work pretty well to figure out the revenues of any pre-public SaaS/web services company.  Here is the formula:

我的一个朋友在公共网络公司负责商业智能研究这一块,他教给我一些似乎很容易算出:任何打算上市的SaaS公司或网络服务公司的收入规则。

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下面就是公式:

Take the # of employees the SaaS company has, as reported on LinkedIn’s Company profile for that company.

首先查看一下LinkedIn官网上关于该家公司的员工数简介。

and

然后

Multiply by $150,000 if well-funded.  $200,000 if modestly funded. 

如果该公司资金充足的话就用员工数乘以15万美元。如果资金并不充足的话就乘以20万美元。

And that’s the company’s revenues.  All done.

那么,所得结果就是该公司的收入。

 If the company is very heavily funded (>$40m+ plus, growing quickly), it may be as low as $100,000 in revenue per employee.  If it’s self-funded, and/or is primarily freemium, the number may be as high as $300,000.  (Higher than that is rare in SaaS, if less so in successful consumer internet).

如果公司资金非常充足,远多于 4千万美元,而且公司处于快速增长时期,那么可能每个员工有至少10万美元的收入。如果是自筹资金,且主要基于免费增值模式,那么这个数值可能高达30万美元。在SaaS公司高于这个值还是很罕见的,一般来说成功的消费者互联网企业会低于这个数值。

But on average $150k revenue if well funded, else $200k / employee seems to work pretty well as soon as you are past a few million in ARR.  And LinkedIn is pretty accurate in telling you employee headcount, since basically everyone fills out their LinkedIn profile.

但如果公司资金充足的话,员工的平均收入可达15万美元,20万美元也是可能的,只要公司ARR多于百万美元。LinkedIn可以很准确地告诉你公司的员工人数,因为基本上每个人都填写了他们的LinkedIn资料。

Let’s do a few checks, and compare to the actual company revenues we have for 2011 on a GAAP basis from our friends at Inc:

下面,让我们来做个验证,根据美国公认会计准则,与2011年公司的核算实际收入作为参照:

Marketo.  368 employees.  x $200k = $74m ARR.  Could be.  Lots of capital. x $150k = $55m ARR.  More likely.

1、Marketo。拥有的368名员工。以 20万美元,则得到7千4百万美元的ARR。有可能。如果是资本注入很高,则乘以 15万美元得到 5千5百万美元的ARR。这个可能性更大。

Hubspot.  468 employees x $150k = $70m ARR.  Probably too high since they did $29m in GAAP in 2011.  But lots of capital.  Update:  actual number is $60m in ARR.  Super high growth rate pushes it down a bit below $150k.

2、Hubspot。员工468人。乘以15万美元得到的ARR 为7千万美元。可能有点儿太高了,因为根据公认会计准则,2011年全年收入是2千9百万美元。但如果有大量的资本 ,需要更新一下:实际ARR是6千万美元。超高的增长率使得基数略低于15万美元。

YouSendit.  YSI is primarily freemium but well funded.  So 235 employees x say $250k = $58m ARR.  Exactly what they recently reported on TechCrunch (YouSendIt Acquires Found To Enable Integrated File Search Across Apps, Devices, Cloud Storage Platforms And More | TechCrunch) — and makes sense if they did $38m in GAAP the past year.

3、YouSendit。YSI主要是免费增值,但其资金充足。所以员工235人乘以 25万美元,等于5千8百万美元的ARR。这个正是他们最近在TechCrunch上报道的数值。TechCrunch上写道:YouSendIt收购Found公司,集成从设备,到云存储到平台等文件搜索。如果他们去年GAAP收入为3千8百万美元,那么这就有意义。

Anyhow I know this is no secret.  And it just gives you a range, but if you move the revenue number back and forth based on funding, stage, and business model … it gets you pretty close.

总之,我知道这不是秘密。只是给你一个范围,但如果你基于资金,发展阶段,商业模式等等来回调整收入数字,就非常接近我们上面的公式了。

It’s especially useful for companies you have an interest in, but simply no idea how big they are.

尽管可能你不知道对感兴趣的公司规模不是很了解,但是十分有用。

A nice summary for more mature tech companies at scale is here:

下图是对一些比较成熟的科技公司的完善总结:

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and a broader one here with a great Google Doc spreadsheet:

基于更广泛的数据考察,以下图表通过谷歌文档制作:

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